Tag: Stock Market

Market Commentary & Coronavirus Thoughts

March 2, 2020
Uncategorized

Marshall Bolden, CFA®, President

March 2, 2020

Given the sharp increase in market volatility and the stock market declines over the past several days, many clients have understandably been concerned. While we cannot predict what the markets will do moving forward, we do want to provide some thoughts and commentary regarding the current situation.

Markets hate uncertainty, and there is currently a lot of uncertainty around the spread of coronavirus and how this will impact economic growth rates and corporate earnings. As the virus has moved outside China and established outbreaks in other countries, fear and uncertainty have grown. This is coming at a time when equity valuations, particularly in the U.S., were higher than average. This combination of factors has led to sharp pullbacks in the equity markets. From its closing level on February 19, the S&P 500 Index declined nearly 13% through February 28. The last week was the worst week for many equity markets since the 2008/2009 financial crisis.

It is too early to speak with any certainty regarding the ultimate reach of the virus and how this will affect various economies. We do expect volatility to remain elevated in the short term as the reach of the virus continues to expand and as various governments, agencies, and industries react to this. However, this does not necessarily mean the equity markets will continue to decline steeply. As already mentioned, the short-term market movements are a guessing game, but we do have historical data related to previous periods when pandemics occurred. JP Morgan Asset Management has reviewed S&P 500 returns related to the SARS, swine flu (H1N1), bird flu (H7N9), Ebola & MERS outbreaks. This data shows an average max drawdown of less than 10%, that one month after the outbreaks the average return is nearly flat, and that 6 months after the outbreaks the average return has been above 10%. In other words, the drawdowns or market declines in similar past events have not been prolonged events, and the S&P 500 has normally been higher 6 months after an outbreak than it was at the beginning.

Volatility and market declines inevitably cause emotions to increase. The urge to sell, reduce risk, or generally take action rises. Behavioral finance has told us this for years. There is also plenty of actual, historical data that points to the impact of quick, emotions-based decisions. Outcomes of such decisions are often detrimental to investor’s returns and probability of reaching their long-term goals. This makes sense. Our emotions normally scream to sell or reduce risk when the markets begin to fall, and once the markets have been up a while and/or are more stable, they tell us to get back in or to increase risk. Doing this often results in selling low & buying high…the exact opposite of the investment idiom that says to buy low & sell high. The reality of investing is that very few, if any, people can accurately and consistently predict short term market movements. Therefore, we will continue to stress long-term investing and for investments and risk level to be determined in light of a long-term plan. This linked video commentary by Kara Murphy provides further insight regarding recent market events and the importance of investing within the context of a long-term plan. Kara is the Chief Investment Officer

Investment advisory services offered through CapSouth Partners, Inc., an independent Registered Investment Advisor, dba CapSouth Wealth Management. CapSouth Partners does not provide tax or legal advice. Please consult your tax or legal advisor prior to making decisions which may have tax or legal consequences. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Information contained herein is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as such by CapSouth. Nothing contained herein should be construed as individual investment advice; all commentary is of a general nature. This commentary contains opinions; any opinions presented should not be construed as fact and are not in any way a guarantee of future events.

The Investment Risk No One’s Ever Heard Of

March 26, 2019
Investing, Retirement Planning, Wisdom

Knowledgeable investors are aware that investing in the capital markets presents any number of risks – interest-rate risk, company risk, and market risk. Risk is an inseparable companion to the potential for long-term growth. Some of the investment risks we face can be mitigated through diversification.[i]

As an investor, you face another, less-known risk for which the market does not compensate you, nor can it be easily reduced through diversification. Yet, it may be the biggest challenge to the sustainability of your retirement income.

This risk is called the sequence-of-returns risk.

The sequence-of-returns risk refers to the uncertainty of the order of returns an investor will receive over an extended period of time. As Milton Friedman once observed, you should, “Never try to walk across a river just because it has an average depth of four feet.”[ii]

Sequence of Returns

Mr. Friedman’s point was that averages may hide dangerous possibilities. This is especially true with the stock market. You may be comfortable that the market will deliver its historical average return over the long term, but you can never know when you will be receiving the varying positive and negative returns that comprise the average. The order in which you receive these returns can make a big difference.

For instance, a hypothetical market decline of 30% is not to be unexpected. However, would you rather experience this decline when you have relatively small retirement savings or at the moment you are ready to retire – when your savings may never be more valuable? Without a doubt, the former scenario is preferable, but the timing of that large potential decline is out of your control.

Timing, Timing, Timing

The sequence-of-returns risk is especially problematic while you are in retirement. Down years, in combination with portfolio withdrawals taken to provide retirement income, have the potential to seriously damage the ability of your savings to recover sufficiently, even as the markets fully rebound.

If you are nearing retirement or already in retirement, it’s time to give serious consideration to the “sequence-of-returns risk” and ask questions about how you can better manage your portfolio.

Visit www.capsouthwm.com for more information about CapSouth Wealth Management.

Investment advisory services are offered through CapSouth Partners, Inc., dba CapSouth Wealth Management, an independent registered Investment Advisory firm. Information provided by sources deemed to be reliable. CapSouth does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. This material has been prepared for planning purposes only and is not intended as specific tax or legal advice. Tax and legal laws are often complex and frequently change. Please consult your tax or legal advisor to discuss your specific situation before making any decisions that may have tax or legal consequences.

This article contains external links to third party content (content hosted on sites unaffiliated with CapSouth Partners). The policies and procedures governing these third-party sites may differ from those effective on the CapSouth company website, as outlined in these Disclaimers. As such, CapSouth makes no representations whatsoever regarding any third-party content/sites that may be accessible directly or indirectly from the CapSouth website. Linking to these third-party sites in no way implies an endorsement or affiliation of any kind between CapSouth and any third party, including legal authorization to use any trademark, trade name, logo, or copyrighted materials belonging to either entity.

[i] https://www.kiplinger.com/article/retirement/T047-C032-S014-is-your-retirement-income-in-peril-of-this-risk.html

[ii] https://quotefancy.com/quote/868218/Milton-Friedman-Never-try-to-walk-across-a-river-just-because-it-has-an-average-depth-of

The Anatomy of the Index

January 31, 2019
Investing, Investment Updates, Wisdom

Did you know that nearly $10 trillion in assets are benchmarked to the Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Index, including about $3.5 trillion in index assets?[i]

The S&P 500 is ubiquitous. It is constantly referenced in financial and non-financial media, and we may compare the return of our own investments to its performance. As the index represents approximately 80% of the value of the U.S. equity market (or in financialese, about 80% of market capitalization), it may be worthwhile to gain a better understanding of its structure and workings.¹

Breaking down the benchmark. The S&P 500, as we know it today, was introduced in March 1957. It tracks the market value of about 500 large firms that are listed on the Nasdaq Composite and the New York Stock Exchange. The S&P is structured to include companies from across the sectors of the business community, in an effort to represent the breadth of the U.S. economy.^1,[ii]

There are a number of criteria a company must meet to be considered for inclusion in the index. A firm must be a U.S. company publicly listed on a major equity market exchange, have a market capitalization of $6.1 billion or more, and have at least 250,000 of its shares traded in each of the six months prior to its consideration for index membership by Standard & Poor’s. A company must also be financially viable: the ratio of its annual dollar value traded to its float-adjusted market cap must be greater than 1.0.[iii]

The S&P has changed over time. Companies have been gradually removed and added over the past 60-odd years. At the benchmark’s fiftieth anniversary in 2007, just 86 of the original components remained. Subsequent mergers and acquisitions have reduced that number further.³

Right now, about 20% of the weight of the S&P is held in ten companies, and the performance of tech shares influences the benchmark’s return, perhaps more than any other factor.³

The index has been altered through the years in response to changes in the economy. Across several decades, the makeup of the index’s various sectors has differed, along with their weightings. This leads to frequent updates for the equity funds that aim to replicate the index; in order to maintain that replication, they may quickly need to buy or sell shares of corporations that are being added or removed.³

It should be noted that investors cannot invest directly in an index. Also, index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment choices designed to replicate any index may not perfectly track it, and their returns will be reduced by fees and expenses.

[i] https://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500

[ii] https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/041015/what-history-sp-500.asp

[iii] https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/07/10/7-fascinating-facts-about-the-broad-based-sp-500.aspx